Urban cooling in climate change scenarios

Science, Research & Data
1

Hi guys!

I’m working on modeling urban heat islands (UHIs) for both current and future temperature scenarios. However, one of the inputs is the UHI effect itself. How can I estimate or project the UHI effect under future climate scenarios? Should I assume a fixed UHI intensity or use another approach?

Any guidance or references would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks!

2

Hi everyone,

I’m still waiting for some guidance on how to model UHIs under future temperature scenarios. I’ve been trying to use local climate models, but the difference between rural and urban temperatures remains the same in the future, so the UHI intensity doesn’t change either. The heat mitigation index is also the same in both historical and future scenarios, so it seems like the climate change doesn’t affect anything.

3

Complementary information: I also tried to simulate climate change by altering average humidity and focusing on Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), but my area of interest is characterized by high humidity, and future projections show a decrease in humidity. This leads to a scenario where the future appears better than the present.